Software & Handbooks

 Free Fulton Findings Demo Test Software–Take A Test Drive Before You Buy … …

Version 4.0 WA. Download demo

If you own an authentic copy of the software, see below !!!!!!!.

If you DO NOT have an authentic copy of WinSMITH Weibull (WSW), WinSMITH Visual (WSV), or YBATH (YB) you can proceed to download and install the demonstration software without difficulty. 

Before you download, reed this recommendation to stay out of trouble when you own authentic versions of WinSMITH Weibull or WinSMITH Visual!!!
· If you HAVE an authentic copy of WinSMITH Weibull or WinSMITH Visual you may get into trouble unless your follow the directions carefully. 

Note: Version 4.0 download copies of the demo programs have executable names SMITHW.EXE and SMITHV.EXE which will overwrite your authentic programs!!!! 


· Download the self-extracting files into your usual download directory. Then expand the demo files into a new directory such as D:\SMITHW (rather than the usual C:\SMITHW ). This will allow you to have dual programs until you’re ready to convert the demo programs into full strength programs. 

· You can loose your authentic programs if you proceed mindlessly!! Then you will be stuck with only a demo version (demo versions will randomise your data input and not function with fidelity as will the full strength version—however, if you import an authentic WSW or WSV file into the demo program, it will perform with fidelity—this feature is often used by university instructors who own the program and thus students can analyse the instructor’s file without purchasing software).

Download WinSMITH Weibull probability software and WinSMITH Visual Crow/AMSAA plotting 32-bit version (the SuperSMITH file for both software is ~3.9 Meg and will not run on Windows 3.1 but does run on Windows 95 to Windows 2000 and it allows long file names and printing with ease on networks).

WinSMITH Weibull is a probability plotting software for Weibull, log-normal, normal, and extreme value distributions plus other calculations. WinSMITH Visual a scientific plotting software also makes Crow/AMSAA Reliability growth plots.

 

Prices and descriptions for software and books are listed below.
Please contact Ronald Schop for the latest update or if you have any questions. Purchase by Bank transfer, check, money order or purchase order. No overseas purchases are accepted at the moment (Europe Only).
Prices/Ordering Information for Software and Handbooks

 

ITEM
PRICE (Euro)
COMMENTS
Tutorial (book + data files)
48.00
Playtime For SuperSMITH TM
The New Weibull Handbook(c)
98.00
The standard Weibull reference
WinSMITH TM Weibull (Windows)
580.00
The standard Weibull software
WinSMITH TM Visual (Windows)
480.00
Reliability growth included free
SuperSMITH TM (All above)
960.00
Complete self-study course
New Methods for Life Data Analysis
98.00
Seven Case studies, including the data, the background and a explaining P.point presentation + Word document

NOTE: All prices are subject to change without prior notice 

 

UPGRADE DISCOUNTS: 

Previous owners of software can upgrade to the latest version of the same software for 30% of the current purchase price if the previous version is no more than one year old. The upgrade price is 50% of the current purchase price if the previous version is more than one year old. Another option is to purchase a yearly “maintenance” contract for 40% of the current purchase price payable each year. Maintenance allows the purchaser to upgrade to the latest version at any time during the year length of the contract.

Click Here for Site License, Server Environment and Quantity Price Discounts and more information on Upgrades.
We standard ship 32-bit (Win95/98/NT/2000/XP-and-above) software.
We can make 16-bit (Win3.1) software versions of the WinSMITH(TM) software available if needed. WinSMITH(TM) and SuperSMITH(TM) prices shown above are for 32-bit software. There is a Euro 20.00 extra costs per program for the 16-bit software. Choice of 16-bit or 32-bit depends on application. A comparison of the two alternatives is stated below.

32-bit software:
1. supports long file names
2. better network interface especially for printing 
3. approximately twice as large as the 16-bit software
4. runs on later Windows (95, 98, NT, 2000, XP, etc.), but WILL NOT run on early Windows (3.1)
16-bit software
1. no support for long filenames 
2. more work to connect to network especially for printing
3. half of the storage and memory requirements of the 32-bit software 
4. runs on any 100% compatible Windows system (3.1, 95, 98, NT, 2000, etc.) except systems specifically excluding 16-bit software

Standard shipping and handling within the Netherlands.
Rest of Europe Euro 20.00 for each individual program or handbook.
Standard Europe delivery is 2 days.
Express shipping within the Europe is available at an additional Euro 20.00 each individual program or handbook.
Prices are subject to discount for multiple purchase.

 

Contact Ronald Schop for more pricing information.
Detailed product descriptions are given in the Software and Handbooks sections.

Software List Prices with Quantity Discounts
(Including Site License and Server Environment Agreements)

Adjusted Unit Prices in Euro (May Change)**

Quantity or Terminals 
Cost 
WSW* 
WSV*
SS*
100%
580
480
960
90%
522
432
864
3-6
80%
464
384
768
7-19
70%
406
336
672
20 or more
67%
388
322
644


*WSW = WinSMITH™ Weibull (Windows),
SV = WinSMITH™ Visual (Windows),
S = SuperSMITH™ = WSW + WSV + PTT (PlayTIME™ Tutorial) + NWH
(The New Weibull Handbook© by Dr. R. Abernethy),

The New Weibull Handbook© by Dr. R. Abernethy, (NWH) list price is Euro 98. The PlayTIME™ Tutorial (PT) list price is Euro 48. There are no quantity discounts for NWH or PT unless arranged separately.

**Unit prices are subject to change without notice, please call to confirm.

Included is free software support by E-mail response usually within 2 to 5 working days. Site license support is through one designated representative of the purchaser. Sale is for current version only.

UPGRADES to the latest version of the same software can be provided at 30% of Adjusted Unit Price (50% for old versions more than one year old). New versions of software are announced at http://www.weibullnews.com on the Internet.

1. Quantity Prices are “Adjusted Unit Prices” for quantity purchased. One user permitted per copy purchased.

2. Site License or Network Server pricing is the same as Quantity Prices using maximum simultaneous user quantity (terminals) instead of copy quantity. One copy of disk(s) provided. Purchaser is responsible for limiting usage within possible server access area (site) to quantity purchased. Licensed use is only by purchaser’s workers for purchaser’s activities. Access may be local or remote. Site license Purchase quantity of 50 allows unlimited number of users for the version purchased. Different business unit ownership requires separate licenses.

3. Maintenance for site license or network server includes upgrade to latest version at any time upon request while maintenance is funded. New version notification is by www.weibullnews.com on the internet. Maintenance cost is 40% of current purchase price payable at the beginning of each year funded.

4. Shipping/Handling is free for site license or network server purchase (quantity at least 10). Shipping/Handling is Euro 20 (only inside Europe) for each separate item purchased.

Note: Unauthorized copying of this software is not allowed.
Detailed product descriptions are given in the Software and Handbooks sections.

 

WinSMITH Weibull Software

WinSMITH Weibull version 4.0 (WSW) is a Windows based probability plot software. WinSMITH Weibull software by Fulton Findings produces Weibull, LogNormal, Gumbel (both upper and lower) distribution, and normal probability-plots to analyse data used for making Reliability improvements. It operates in a Windows 95, Windows NT, Windows XP, and Windows 2000 operating environment. Price list for the software also provide for volume discounts. Version 4.0 is available as a CD in 32-bit format which allow long file names and run on Windows 95 through Windows NT and Windows 2000 with easier use with LAN printers. View the software revision list on Fulton Findings 

Two software training aids are available:


1. PlayTIME is the home study tutorial used for Weibull Analysis training Workshops.

2. For those who prefer more details, consider the WinSMITH Weibull and WinSMITH Visual Training Manual which is used for the 1.5 day WinSMITH Weibull and WinSMITH Visual hands-on training sessions.

You can download a short PDF file that shows excerpts from the WSW-WSV Training Manual. This will help you get started with the software and how you interpret a Weibull plot.

You can download no-cost demonstration software for evaluation and teaching. Universities can use the demonstration software to analyse datasets saved from authentic WinSMITH Weibull software as the demo version will handle the authentic file and NOT randomise the data as occurs when you type data into the demonstration software.

WinSMITH Visual Software


WinSMITH Visual version 4.0 (WSV) is a Windows based scientific plotting software which acts as a plotting engine for other Fulton Findings software. WinSMITH Visual assists in analysing data used for making Reliability improvements. 


WinSMITH Visual operates in a Windows 95, Windows NT, Windows XP, and Windows 2000 operating environment. Price list for the software also provide for volume discounts. Version 4.0 is available as a CD in 32-bit format which allow long file names and run on Windows 95 through Windows NT and Windows 2000 with easier use with LAN printers. View the software revision list on Fulton Findings


WinSMITH Visual also makes Crow/AMSAA (formerly called Duane/AMSAA) Reliability growth curves and with one click of an icon transforms the cumulative failure data into cumulative MTBF.

Note: All Fulton Findings software is “stand alone” and provides internal plotting capability as appropriate. WinSMITH Weibull and WeibullSMITH generate their own CDF plots but rely on WinSMITH Visual for special purpose plots. 

The New Weibull Handbook
Weibull analysis is the world’s most popular method of analysing and predicting failures and malfunctions of all types. The method identifies the category of failure: infant mortality, random or wear out. Weibull analysis provides the quantitative information needed for making Upper Management decisions which are often made from a qualitative approach. Weibull failure predictions are accurate even with very small samples of data. Weibull analysis calculates optimal Parts replacement intervals for minimising cost. Weibull analysis is needed for making risk based inspection decisions to take action or defer action on potential failures.
Crow-AMSAA charts, a different use of Weibull analysis, predict future failures, analyse R&D testing and their improvement proces, track fleets of repairable systems, and provide the most accurate trending of significant events for Upper Management. Both techniques may show either events or cost analysis. Crow-AMSAA numbers tell if failure rates are increasing, decreasing, or staying the same with time. Crow-AMSAA plots are also useful for forecasting Safety issues concerning future Safety incidents, spills, and other controllable events.

You can download the Cover, Preface, and Table of Contents from The New Weibull Handbook as a 12 page PDF file—the file size is 183KB. Also, you can download Chapter 1 from The New Weibull Handbook that is available as a 11 page PDF file –the file size is 550KB. This book is used for Weibull Analysis Seminars.


The subtitle for The New Weibull Handbook 4th edition is: Reliability & Statistical Analysis for Predicting Life, Safety, Survivability, Risk, Cost and Warranty Claims. The 4th edition is identified by: ISBN 0-9653062-1-6 for the 308 pages of fresh information. The book weighs ~ 0.8 kg and has clear plastic flexible covers. If you own earlier copies of The New Weibull Handbook should you upgrade to the 4th edition?—YES because of the new research findings in most chapters of the book. At this web site, you can review WinSMITH Weibull software for performing the Weibull analysis and WinSMITH Visual software for performing the Crow-AMSAA Reliability growth plots which are described in The New Weibull Handbook.


Dr. Robert B. Abernethy is the author and publisher of The New Weibull Handbook. (Pronounce the name Weibull as “Y-Bull”.) Dr. Abernethy also offers Eagle EYE(SM) service to quickly review your data, using concepts detailed in the handbook, and provide comments on what he observes in your data sets.


If professional analysis of your data in the Dutch or other European language is required, Weibull; Reliability Engineering will provide this type of service to you for low fees. For (ex) students of the Weibull; Reliability Engineering workshop this service is free of charge, but do not expect long reports!

The New Weibull Handbook, Fourth Edition, has been written to update this text with the latest technologies developed by Life Data and Warranty analysts. The figures are updated with higher resolution and better fonts. Some of the new topics included follow:

• Small samples reduced bias adjustments for maximum likelihood estimates for the Weibull, normal and log normal distributions providing significant improvements in accuracy. Maximum likelihood estimates can now be made for small samples as accurately as median rank regression. 
• Small sample reduced bias adjustment for the likelihood ratio test and the likelihood contour comparisons of life data sets. Is the new design significantly better than the old design based on testing four units of each design? 
• Extreme value statistics for both minimum and maximum engineering parameters such as wind gust loads. 
• Improved Crow-AMSAA analysis based on accuracy comparisons between regression and MLE and also, critical correlation coefficients for measuring the goodness of fit of the plotted data. The analysis may be done on failure events, Warranty claims, or cost. The new IEC 1146 regulations are inculded.
• Warranty claims predictions and failure forecasting now account for seasonal variation in usage and monthly variation in production additions to the fleet of units in surface. Here again the analysis may be based on events or on cost. Both nominal and predictive interval estimates are described. 
• Outlier detection. Is that first point or the last point really part of the data set or is it a wild point? 
• New research on confidence intervals changes the best practice recommendations. 
• Improved methods for detecting batch effects. Does the failure mode apply to the whole fleet or just a subset, perhaps a recent production batch? 
• Production process control using Weibull analysis. How much do production cutbacks and shutdowns cost and how much production is lost? What is the maximum production capacity of the existing process? 
• There are many methods and types of analysis described in The New Weibull Handbook. How can the novice analyst decide which is the most appropriate procedure for his problem. A new logic diagram has been added to provide step-by-step guidance. 
• New case studies have been added.
• The Index has been substantially increased for quick references

About Dr. Robert B. Abernethy

Dr. Abernethy is THE leading world authority on the principles and application of Weibull analysis for solving failure problems in a number of different fields. Dr. Abernethy was a practising Mechanical Engineer prior to earning his Ph.D. in Statistics which eventually involved him in Weibull statistics as the tool of choice for Reliability engineers.. Dr. Abernethy (affectionately know around the word as Dr. Bob) is the retired Chief Statistician for Pratt & Whitney Aircraft. At Pratt & Whitney Aircraft, he gained practical use of Weibull techniques for solving Reliability problems.
Dr. Bob was the manager of Reliability, Safety, Maintainability and Statistical analysis of Pratt & Whitney’s military engine division. He holds the patent on the J58 engine cycle used in the SR-71 “Blackbird” supersonic spy plane that still holds all seventeen world speed records. He also has the patent on the afterburner control system used in the F15 and F16 aircraft. He was the principal author and project manager for the US Air Force Weibull Analysis Handbook, the original edition of The New Weibull Handbook. Since his early retirement from Pratt & Whitney in 1987, he has conducted extensive research to develop new and improved Weibull methods as described in the 2nd edition of the Handbook. Dr. Bob’s experiences as a consultant include medical devices, automotive, electrical/electronic equipment, and nuclear reactor components as well as aerospace. His client list includes most major companies around the world. He is noted lecturer for the major scientific and engineering societies in Weibull analysis and routinely teaches training courses for the societies–although most of his training work is done on specific assignments for individual companies on a contract basis.
For advanced technical questions about Dr. Bob’s book or queries about his consulting or training schedules you can reach him by e-mail at Dr. Bob. His seminar schedules are posted on the web.
Dr. Abernethy also offers EagleEYE(SM) service to quickly review your data, using concepts detailed in the handbook, and provide comments on what he observes in your data sets.

 

PlayTIME with SuperSMITH

PlayTIME with SuperSMITH computer tutorial is a keystroke-by-keystroke tutorial book with case studies and problems in a step-by-step illustrated presentation. The objective of Playtime with SuperSMITH is to show both the novice and the expert how to use all the options and capability in the SuperSMITH software written by Fulton Findings. Fulton Findings software is used for solving Reliability problems on a personal computer.
PlayTIME with SuperSMITH computer tutorial contains problems used in the Weibull Analysis training programs.

The Table Of Contents for PlayTIME with SuperSMITH

Quick Start SuperSMITH
Make Some Weibull Plots
Lets Solve Some Problems—


1. Weibull with suspensions, MLE versus MRR
2. BiWeibull Mixture of competitive failure modes
3. Wire fatigue distribution analysis
4. Goodness of fit
5. Failure forecasting
6. Optimum Replacement Intervals, Warranty Limits and Forecasting
7. Let’s Make Some Plots
8. Your data, Your Problems
9. Weibayes with a failure
10. Weibayes without a failure
11. How about a Dauser shift?
12. Inspection interval data
13. Coarse data
14. Inspection probit data
15. Heavy Weight data–Is it significantly different?
16. Heavy Weight data–Accelerated test analysis
17. Duane-AMSAA
18. Probabilistic design
19. Tolerance stack-up
20. Inspection option versus Kaplan-Meier
21. Are two Weibull data sets significantly different?
22. Binomial
23. Poisson
24. Magic
25. Bearing Design Function
26. Warranty Data Matrix Design Problems
27. Mixture of Two Failure Modes
28. Mixture of Failure Modes and Batch Effect-YBATH
29. High Resolution on Mixture and Batch Problems with ACH
30. Distribution of Beta
31. An Important Problem
32. How Good Are the Answers?
33. Fracture Mechanics
34. Systems Analysis

Appendix A-The Icon Tour

— New plot & PC icons
— Open file folder
— Save file
— Plot-report
— Calculator
— Hard copy-soft copy printer icon
— Dice-demonstrate
— Distribution analysis
— Optimal replacement
— Predict
— Failure forecast-risk
— Test requirements
— Help?
— Confidence intervals
— Labels
— Methods
— Only line
— t Zero – 3 parameter
— Weibayes – 1 parameter
— Zoom
— Additional Fulton Findings Programs
— Parameter as a function of engineering variables
— Mixture 

Index for Playtime

 

Book Review

“1. The New Weibull Handbook, 2nd edn. By R. B. Abernethy. ISBN 0 9653062 0 8. Abernethy, North Palm Beach, 1996. $88.00. (Please note, The New Weibull Handbook is now at the 4th edition using ISBN 0-9653062-1-6. The price is Euro 98 + shipping and handling)


The handbook is used as a manual for training by the author who took early retirement in 1987 to undertake full-time lecturing in Weibull analysis. The print is in a large fount and the equations are in even larger fount so that those of us whose sight is poor will have no excuse for not absorbing the message. There is no doubting the author’s enthusiasm for the Weibull distribution and indeed, as I read on, I found myself influenced increasingly by the author’s persuasiveness. Some of the claims made for its predictive ability for small samples may seem extravagant but, in this respect, I think that we must bow to the wealth of experience gained by Dr. Abernethy over many years. There is a bewildering variety of software from Fulton Findings to accompany the handbook, namely WeibullSMITH™, VisualSMITH™, BiWeibullSMITH™ and MonteCarloSMITH™, none of which were presented with the manual for review. True, other life distributions are mentioned such as the log-normal but, in the context of the handbook, they are subservient to the Weibull.

Probability plots are strongly emphasised and sufficient introductory theory is relegated to appendixes. The plotting position recommended, particularly for skew distributions, is the median plotting position. Not having pursued the merits of one plotting position versus another I fail to understand the logic given for this but the author does quote a remark made by Wayne Nelson that such arguments are just as fruitless as arguing religions since they all point to heaven.
Both nonparametric and parametric methods are explained and well illustrated. These include the Kaplan-Meier, maximum likelihood and likelihood ration approaches. Confidence intervals for parameters and for quantiles such as the B10 life are calculated but the author is not in favour of their use in presentations to management because they are so little understood (in this respect he quotes a ‘Forthsooth’ from RSS News in 1992). I agree with his opinion on this but I take strong exception to his answer to one of the question from readers where he states that ‘even most statisticians do no understand the confidence concept’. However, it may be true that many who profess to be statisticians do not understand the concept.


Particularly in the field of Reliability there is much confusion and lack of understanding of classical statistics as enshrined in military standards. Engineers without previous exposure to statistics more readily take to the Bayesian approach. To a certain extent this is catered for by WeiBayes in the handbook, but it is not a full Bayesian approach since a single value is established for the shape parameter on the basis of past experience. There is no natural conjugacy for the Weibull distribution but there is gamma conjugacy for a scale parameter conditional on discrete prior values for the shape parameter (Martz and Waller, 1982). This should not be at all difficult for engineers to assimilate, especially when displays of priors and posteriors are easy to produce.
The difficulties in estimation for the Weibull distribution with a threshold parameter t0 are not sufficiently emphasised. The technique of subtracting values from failure times and suspension times until the Weibull plot ‘straightens’ is easier said than done since substantially different values for t0 can make very little difference to a straightened plot. Another manifestation of this difficulty is that the likelihood function is quite flat over wide ranges of t0.


There is a section on Reliability growth and the Duane model written by D. P. Weber, a Reliability consultant. My only criticism of this section is in his use of the term instantaneous failure rate. There is thus no distinction between its use here and its previous use for non-repairable items. Many researchers now use the rate of occurrence of failures for the repairable case.


I detected few errors in the handbook. On p.2-10 the author states that as time progresses the Reliability of components surviving infant mortality increases. To be precise Reliability should be replaced by conditional Reliability. On p. 2-22 the Weibull closure, or self-locking property, is the reciprocal of the correct answer and in Appendix G-23 the second moment about the origin is incorrect and is also incorrectly signified by m2 rather than by m’2. There are a few inconsistencies such as the use of both s2 and s2 to denote a theoretical variance and the author talks about inverse ranks when he means reverse ranks.


In summary the handbook, together with the previously mentioned software (or other), will be an invaluable aid to Reliability engineers. Statisticians would probably prefer a more concise theoretical treatment with more sophisticated applications such as Weibull regression models. As a statistician who is interested in the application of statistical methods in industry I found the many diverse applications and case-studies extremely interesting.

 

Reference
Martz, H. J. and Waller, R. A. (1982) Baysian Reliability Analysis. New York: Willey

Alan Winterbottom
City University
London”